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Expected DA DR from July 2015: AICPIN released for Feb, 2015

Expected DA Jul 2015
Speculation of DA/DR from July, 2015 on the basis of AICPIN of Feb, 2015 is
again not possible.  The 1 point decline in Feb, 2015 AICPIN after 1 point increase in Jan, 2015
and 4 months stationary AICPIN subsequently is showing uncertain change in
AICPIN, thus the exact expectation of future increase/decrease in AICPIN is tough.
However three situations are given in undermentioned table, is showing minimum 117%
to nearabout 119% future DA/DR from Jul-2015. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table.  On the other hand the approval of 6% increase in Dearness Allowance & Dearness Relief from Jan, 2015 is also pending at govt. side,
all are waiting for announcement. Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jan-2015 & Jul-2016 is important for expected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.
Following table only showing the effect of Feb-2015 months’ AICPIN increase

Expect-
ation
Increase/
Decrease
Index
Month Base
Year
2001
= 100
Total
of 12
Months
Twelve
monthly
Average
%
increase
over
115.76
for DA
DA
announced
or will be
announced
2 Jun,14 246 2879 239.92 107.25% 107%
Expected DA
from January,
2015 is to be
announced
by Govt.

DA/DR from
July, 2014
6 Jul,14 252 2896 241.33 108.48% 113%
1 Aug,14 253 2912 242.67 109.63%
0 Sep,14 253 2927 243.92 110.71%
0 Oct,14 253 2939 244.92 111.57%
0 Nov,14 253 2949 245.75 112.29%
0 Dec,14 253 2963 246.92 113.30%
Jan+AICPIN 1 Jan,15 254 2980 248.33 114.52% 114%
Feb+AICPIN -1 Feb,15 253 2995 249.58 115.60% 115%
Expectation
of no
increase
in AICPIN
in next
4 months
0 Mar,15 253 3009 250.75 116.61% 118%
0 Apr,15 253 3020 251.67 117.40%
0 May,15 253 3029 252.42 118.05%
0 Jun,15 253 3036 253.00 118.56%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation
of total
4 points
increase
in AICPIN
in next
4 months
1 Mar,15 254 3010 250.83 116.68% 119%
1 Apr,15 255 3023 251.92 117.62%
1 May,15 256 3035 252.92 118.48%
1 Jun,15 257 3046 253.83 119.28%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Expectation
of total
4 points
decline
in AICPIN
in next
4 months
-1 Mar,15 252 3008 250.67 116.54% 117%
-1 Apr,15 251 3017 251.42 117.19%
-1 May,15 250 3023 251.92 117.62%
-1 Jun,15 249 3026 252.17 117.84%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015

You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation.  The link for excel sheet is given below:

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]

Press Release of AICPIN for Feb 2015 – 1 Points declined and stands at 253:-

No. 5/1/2015- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-l71004
DATED: the 31st March, 2015
Press Release

Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-1W) – February, 2015

The All-India CPI-1W for February, 2015 decreased by 1 point and pegged at 253 (two hundred and fifty three). On 1-month percentage change, it decreased by 0.39 per cent between January, 2015 and February, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.42 per cent between the same two months a year ago. 
The maximum downward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (-) 0.66 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Eggs (Hen), Fish Fresh, Onion, Vegetable items, Sugar, Petrol, Flower/Flower Garlands, etc. are responsible for the decrease in index. However, this decrease was neutralised by Wheat, Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Groundnut Oil, Goat Meat, Tea (Readymade), etc., putting upward pressure on the index. 
The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 6.30 per cent for February, 2015 as compared to 7.17 per cent for the previous month and 6.73 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 7.42 per cent against 7.81 per cent of the previous month and 7.56 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Tiruchirapally recorded the highest decline of 7 points followed by Guntur (4 points), Mysore, Chhindwara Siliguri and Puducherry (3 Points each) Among others, 2 points decrease was observed in 15 centres and 1 point in 18 centres. On the contrary, Belgaum and Kodarma centres reported a highest increase of 3 points each followed by Kanpur, Bokaro and Doom-Dooma Tinsukia (2 points each). Among others 1 point increase was observed in 13 centres. Rest of the 21 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above All India Index and other 40 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Vishakhapathnam centre remained at par with all-India index.
The next index of CPI-1W for the month of March, 2015 will be released on Thursday, 3oth April, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.1obourbureau. gov. in.

(S.S. NEGI)
DIRECTOR

Source: http://labourbureau.nic.in/press%20note%20eng%20feb%202015.pdf

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