Expected DA DR from July-2015 – 118% or 119%: AICPIN released for March-2015

Expectation of DA/DR from July, 2015 on the basis of AICPIN of March, 2015 is
now more clear.  The 1 point increase in March, 2015 AICPIN after 1 point
decline in

Feb-2015 required the rest three month’s AICPIN to release for the confirm
DA/DR from July-2015.  Only one point increase in ACPIN for first half of
current half-yearly and the second half is awaited.  From the given table
is expected to DA/DR for month of July-2015 will stand for 5% increase i.e.
118.  Small variation in AICPIN of the 2nd half of current half year may
increase the expectation by 1% i.e. 119%.  And Large variation in AICPIN
may decrease the expected DA/DR from July, 2015 to 117%.  The following
table also giving the probability 119% DA/DR from July-2015. Readers are requested not to take it final and study the following table. Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jan-2015 & Jul-2015 is important for

projected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.

Following table only showing the effect of Mar-2015 months’ AICPIN:

Expect- ation	Increase/ Decrease Index	Month	Base Year 2001 = 100	Total of 12 Months	Twelve monthly Average	% increase over 115.76 for DA	DA announced or will be announced
	2	Jun,14	246	2879	239.92	107.25%	107%
Order issued for 6% increase in Dearness Allowance 6% increase in Dearness Relief	6	Jul,14	252	2896	241.33	108.48%	113%
	1	Aug,14	253	2912	242.67	109.63%
	0	Sep,14	253	2927	243.92	110.71%
	0	Oct,14	253	2939	244.92	111.57%
	0	Nov,14	253	2949	245.75	112.29%
	0	Dec,14	253	2963	246.92	113.30%
Jan+AICPIN	1	Jan,15	254	2980	248.33	114.52%	118%
Feb+AICPIN	-1	Feb,15	253	2995	249.58	115.60%
Mar+AICPIN	1	Mar,15	254	3010	250.83	116.68%
Expectation No increase in AICPIN in next 3 month	0	Apr,15	254	3022	251.83	117.55%
	0	May,15	254	3032	252.67	118.27%
	0	Jun,15	254	3040	253.33	118.84%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
6 point increase in AICPIN in next 3 month	2	Apr,15	256	3024	252.00	117.69%	119%
	2	May,15	258	3038	253.17	118.70%
	2	Jun,15	260	3052	254.33	119.71%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
3 points  increase in AICPIN in next 3 month	1	Apr,15	255	3023	251.92	117.62%	119%
	1	May,15	256	3035	252.92	118.48%
	1	Jun,15	257	3046	253.83	119.28%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
3 points decline in  AICPIN in next 3 month	-1	Apr,15	253	3021	251.75	117.48%	118%
	-1	May,15	252	3029	252.42	118.05%
	-1	Jun,15	251	3034	252.83	118.41%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015
6 points decline in AICPIN in next 3 month	-2	Apr,15	252	3020	251.67	117.40%	117%
	-2	May,15	250	3026	252.17	117.84%
	-2	Jun,15	248	3028	252.33	117.98%
	Expected DA/DR from July-2015

No. 5/1/2015- CPI

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT

LABOUR BUREAU

CLEREMONT, SHIMLA-17 1004

DATED: 30th April, 2015

Press Release

The All-India CPI-IW for March, 2015 increased by 1 point and pegged at 254 (two
hundred and fifty four). On I -month percentage change, it increased by (+) 0.40
per cent between February, 2015 and March, 2015 when compared with the increase
of (+) 0.42 per cent between the same two months a year ago.

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group
contributing (+) 0.57 percentage points to the total change. At item level,
Wheat, Arhar Dal, Goat Meat, Fish Fresh. Milk (Buffalo & Cow), Vegetable & Fruit
items, Tea (Readymade), Firewood. Doctor’s Fee, Private Tuition Fee, Petrol,
Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this
increase was restricted by Rice, Eggs (Hen). Onion, Potato, Sugar, Electricity
Charges, FLower/Flower Garlands. etc.. putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 6.28 per cent for
March. 2015 as compared to 6.30 per cent for the previous month and 6.70 percent
during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food
inflation stood at 6.98 per cent against 7.42 per cent of the previous month and
7.50 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Goa and Ghaziabad reported the highest increase of 10 points
each followed by Bhavnagar (7 points), Lucknow (5 points), Indore, Varanasi and
Chhindwara (4 points each). Among others, 3 points increase was observed in 10
centres, 2 points in 4 centres and 1 point in 21 centres. On the contrary.
Tiruchirapally centre recorded a maximum decrease of 12 points followed by
Belgaum (4 points) and Doom Dooma Tinsukia (3 points). Among others, 2 points
decrease was observed in 5 centres and 1 point in 10 centres. Rest of the 18
centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above All India Index and other 39 centres indices
are below national average. The index of Vishakhapathnam and Chhindwara centres
remained at par with All-India index. The next index of CPI-1W for the month of
April, 2015 will be released on Friday, 29th May. 2015. The same will also be
available on the office website www.labourbureau.gov.in

S.S.NEGI

DIRECTOR