119% DA-DR from July, 2015 confirmed after 2 points increase in May, 2015 AICPIN



As already calculated in March, 2015 & April 2015 Expected DA/DR will be 119% with effect from July, 2015, it is now confirmed with 2 points increase in May, 2015 CPI-IW.  As per press release issued on today by Labour Bureau the All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Worker for the month  May, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 256. The 6% increase in future DA/DR from July, 2015 i.e. DA/DR will be 119% from July, 2015 is more confirm with this increase. 

A 6 points increase in June, 2015 CPI-IW Index is needed to increase the above said calculation in expected DA/DR to 120% and the other side a 8 point decline in June, 2015 CPI-IW Index is needed to decrease the expected DA/DR to 118%.  The 6 points increase and 8 point decrease is future CPI-IW index is not near to possibility.

Therefore, Dearness Allowance for Central Government Staff and Dearness Relief for Pensioners with effect from July, 2015 is likely to increase 6% and to be 119% the present DA/DR is 113%.  The following 3 tables are easy to establish the Expected DA/DR from July, 2015. Readers are again requested not to take it final. Further, the estimation of two installment of DA/DR from Jul-2015 is important for projected pay and allowances in 7th CPC.


Table-1: 119% DA/DR from July, 2015 when June AICPIN is stationary & with increase upto 5 points and decline upto 7 points.

Expect-
ation
Increase/
Decrease
Index
Month Base
Year
2001
= 100
Total
of 12
Months
Twelve
monthly
Average
% increase
over 115.76
for DA
DA
announced
or will be
announced
DA/DR from Dec, 2015 0 Dec,14 253 2963 246.92 113.30% 113%
Jan+AICPIN 1 Jan,15 254 2980 248.33 114.52% 119%
Feb+AICPIN -1 Feb,15 253 2995 249.58 115.60%
Mar+AICPIN 1 Mar,15 254 3010 250.83 116.68%
Apr+AICPIN 2 Apr,15 256 3024 252.00 117.69%
May+AICPIN 2 May,15 258 3038 253.17 118.70%
Decline 7 pt. -7 Jun,15 251  3043 253.58 119.06%
Stationary 0 258 3050 254.17 119.56%
Increase 5 pt. 5 263 3055 254.58 119.92%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015

Table 2: DA/DR will be 120% w.e.f. July, 2015 when AICPIN of June, 2015 will increase to 6 points

Expect-
ation
Increase/
Decrease
Index
Month Base
Year
2001
= 100
Total
of 12
Months
Twelve
monthly
Average
% increase
over 115.76
for DA
DA
announced
or will be
announced
Jan+AICPIN 1 Jan,15 254 2980 248.33 114.52%
120%
Feb+AICPIN -1 Feb,15 253 2995 249.58 115.60%
Mar+AICPIN 1 Mar,15 254 3010 250.83 116.68%
Apr+AICPIN 2 Apr,15 256 3024 252.00 117.69%
May+AICPIN 2 May,15 258 3038 253.17 118.70%
6 Points increase in June AICPIN 6 Jun,15 246 3056 254.67 120.00%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015
Table 3 - DA/DR will be 118% w.e.f. July, 2015 when AICPIN of June, 2015 will decrease to 8 points
Expect-
ation
Increase/
Decrease
Index
Month Base
Year
2001
= 100
Total
of 12
Months
Twelve
monthly
Average
% increase
over 115.76
for DA
DA
announced
or will be
announced
Jan+AICPIN 1 Jan,15 254 2980 248.33 114.52% 118%
Feb+AICPIN -1 Feb,15 253 2995 249.58 115.60%
Mar+AICPIN 1 Mar,15 254 3010 250.83 116.68%
Apr+AICPIN 2 Apr,15 256 3024 252.00 117.69%
May+AICPIN 2 May,15 258 3038 253.17 118.70%
8 point decline
in June Index
-8 Jun,15 250 3042 253.50 118.99%
Expected DA/DR from July-2015

You may also download/save the excel sheet for self calculation.  The link for excel sheet is given below:

DOWNLOAD: EXCEL FILE FOR EXPECTED DEARNESS CALCULATION TO CALCULATE YOURSELF [click on File-Menu & download]

Press Release of AICPIN for May 2015 – 2 Points increase and pegged at 258:-

No. 5/1/2015- CPI
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF LABOUR & EMPLOYMENT
LABOUR BUREAU

‘CLEREMONT’, SHIMLA-l71004
DATED : 30th June, 2015

Press Release
Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) - May, 2015

The All-India CPI-1W for May, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 258 (two hundred and fifty eight). On l-month percentage change, it increased by 0.78 per cent between April, 2015 and May, 2015 when compared with the increase of (+) 0.83 per cent between the same two months a year ago. 

The maximum upward pressure to the change in current index came from Food group contributing (+) 1.96 percentage points to the total change. At item level, Rice, Arhar Dal, Gram Dal, Masur Dal, Moong Dal, Urd Dal, Groundnut Oil, Mustard Oil, Fish Fresh, Goat Meat, Poultry (Chicken), Onion, Vegetable items, Electricity Charges, Petrol, Tailoring Charges, etc. are responsible for the increase in index. However, this increase was restricted by Wheat, Wheat Atta, Gourd, Torai, Lady’s Finger, Mango, Sugar, Bus Fare, etc., putting downward pressure on the index.

The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-1W stood at 5.74 per cent for May, 2015 as compared to 5.79 per cent for the previous month and 7.02 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 5.99 per cent against 5.68 per cent of the previous month and 7.66 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.

At centre level, Mercara, Bokaro, Coonoor, Belgaum and Madurai reported the highest increase of 8 points each followed by Tiruchirapally (7 points). Among others, 6 points increase was observed in 4 centres, 5 points in 5 centres, 4 points in 12 centres, 3 points in 9 centres, 2 points in 10 centres and 1 point in 15 centres. On the contrary, Srinagar and Rangapara Tezpur centres recorded a maximum decrease of 3 points each followed by Darjeeling (2 points). Among others, 1 point decrease was observed in 4 centres. Rest of the 10 centres’ indices remained stationary.

The indices of 37 centres are above All India Index and other 40 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Tiruchirapally is at par with all-India index.

The next index of CPI-1W for the month of June, 2015 will be released on Friday, 3 lst July, 2015. The same will also be available on the office website www.1obourbureau. gov. in.

(S. . NEGI)
DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL

http://labourbureau.nic.in/Press_Note_Eng_May_2015.pdf

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119% DA-DR from July, 2015 confirmed after 2 points increase in May, 2015 AICPINhttp://www.staffnews.in/2015/06/119-da-dr-from-july-2015-confirmed.html
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Central Government Employee News and Tools: 119% DA-DR from July, 2015 confirmed after 2 points increase in May, 2015 AICPIN
119% DA-DR from July, 2015 confirmed after 2 points increase in May, 2015 AICPIN
it is now confirmed with 2 points increase in May, 2015 CPI-IW. As per press release issued on today by Labour Bureau the All India Consumer Price Index for Industrial Worker for the month May, 2015 increased by 2 points and pegged at 256. The 6% increase in future DA/DR from July, 2015 i.e. DA/DR will be 119% from July, 2015 is more confirm with this increase.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1pOCQRb1Xa0/VPCUBRP1Q4I/AAAAAAAABGA/2HXilTkogCs/s240/Expected-DA-Jul-2015.jpg
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